false negative rate
PCS Workflow for Veridical Data Science in the Age of AI
Rewolinski, Zachary T., Yu, Bin
Data science is a pillar of artificial intelligence (AI), which is transforming nearly every domain of human activity, from the social and physical sciences to engineering and medicine. While data-driven findings in AI offer unprecedented power to extract insights and guide decision-making, many are difficult or impossible to replicate. A key reason for this challenge is the uncertainty introduced by the many choices made throughout the data science life cycle (DSLC). Traditional statistical frameworks often fail to account for this uncertainty. The Predictability-Computability-Stability (PCS) framework for veridical (truthful) data science offers a principled approach to addressing this challenge throughout the DSLC. This paper presents an updated and streamlined PCS workflow, tailored for practitioners and enhanced with guided use of generative AI. We include a running example to display the PCS framework in action, and conduct a related case study which showcases the uncertainty in downstream predictions caused by judgment calls in the data cleaning stage.
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A Disparity Metric Definitions 566 A.1 Observational Metrics
U 2 U that influences all of the variables U influences. Figure 5: Example of step one in the marginalisation, taken from Evans [22]. In this section we analyse the datasets presented in Le Quy et al. For each bias we provide a justification of our decision. Therefore we drop them from the analysis. Diabetes For this dataset, the goal is to predict if a patient will be readmitted in the next 30 days.
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Conformal Risk Training: End-to-End Optimization of Conformal Risk Control
Yeh, Christopher, Christianson, Nicolas, Wierman, Adam, Yue, Yisong
While deep learning models often achieve high predictive accuracy, their predictions typically do not come with any provable guarantees on risk or reliability, which are critical for deployment in high-stakes applications. The framework of conformal risk control (CRC) provides a distribution-free, finite-sample method for controlling the expected value of any bounded monotone loss function and can be conveniently applied post-hoc to any pre-trained deep learning model. However, many real-world applications are sensitive to tail risks, as opposed to just expected loss. In this work, we develop a method for controlling the general class of Optimized Certainty-Equivalent (OCE) risks, a broad class of risk measures which includes as special cases the expected loss (generalizing the original CRC method) and common tail risks like the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Furthermore, standard post-hoc CRC can degrade average-case performance due to its lack of feedback to the model. To address this, we introduce "conformal risk training," an end-to-end approach that differentiates through conformal OCE risk control during model training or fine-tuning. Our method achieves provable risk guarantees while demonstrating significantly improved average-case performance over post-hoc approaches on applications to controlling classifiers' false negative rate and controlling financial risk in battery storage operation.
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A Disparity Metric Definitions 566 A.1 Observational Metrics
U 2 U that influences all of the variables U influences. Figure 5: Example of step one in the marginalisation, taken from Evans [22]. In this section we analyse the datasets presented in Le Quy et al. For each bias we provide a justification of our decision. Therefore we drop them from the analysis. Diabetes For this dataset, the goal is to predict if a patient will be readmitted in the next 30 days.
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